Half of the 60 largest economies face a serious risk of water shortages in the future unless climate policy changes, according to new research from the economics department of the ING global banking group.
With consumption expected to grow by 2% a year, demand for fresh water is rapidly approaching the currently available supply. The report, Too little, too much - The diverse sectoral challenges of water, says that by 2040, this could lead to a gap of 50% between the available (sustainable and reliable) supply of fresh water and demand.
If no change is made to climate policy, 29 of the world’s 60 largest economies, the countries that currently make up 57% of the world economy, will face a serious risk of water shortages.
Rising demand for fresh water as a result of industrialisation
The projected overall 2% annual demand growth for freshwater will lead to serious constraints - the global demand for water is expected to grow by 2% annually in the coming decades, according to the researchers.
As a result of industrialisation, industry around the world is expected to use 4% more water each year in the future. Consequently, industry’s share of global water consumption will rise from 21% to an estimated 38% in 2040. Power stations in particular are driving water consumption and for this reason are increasingly being located on the coast in order to be able to use seawater.
Water-intensive sectors are in countries with a serious risk of ‘water stress’
Agriculture is by far the most water-intensive sector globally, consuming 800 litres of water to add $1 of value. In the energy sector the figure is 300 litres and in industry 11 litres. Most production in these sectors takes place in the 29 countries at serious risk of ‘water stress’, meaning that demand for water is at least temporarily greater than supply or that insufficient good quality water is available.
For example, 88% of coal mining, 80% of the textile industry and 74% of global agriculture is located in these countries. The report says the traditional conflict between water for energy and water for food is set to extend to other sectors such as metals and clothing.
In a world of water scarcity, one in which agriculture and energy are the two most water-intensive sectors, the report suggests that a point will be reached where one basic necessity may need to be chosen over another.
Climate change will hit energy-related water use in multiple ways
The report is also warning that climate change will hit energy-related water use in multiple ways. Without enough water for cooling, power plants will either have to cut back production or even shut down and if rising temperatures make water supplies too warm for cooling, power plants will be forced to reduce their electricity production when it is needed most.
Responsible water usage by corporations and improved water efficiency in agricultural will be key to securing adequate water availability in the future.
Flood-prone zones will need better protection
The report is also warning that flood-prone zones will need better protection with seven countries, including the economic powerhouses United States, China and India, prone to flooding as well as water stress.
The researchers say that partnerships with the private sector will need to be stepped up to find solutions that will save lives and the significant costs of damage from floods in the future.
Click here to download Too little, too much - The diverse sectoral challenges of water
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