The Climate Change Committee is warning the government to prepare for 2°C of warming by 2050, saying “it is clear we are not yet adapted for the changes in weather and climate that we are living with today, let alone those that are expected over coming decades.”

In a letter to Water and Flooding Minister Emma Hardy published today in response to the government's request for advice, Chair of the CCC’s Adaptation Committee Baroness Black writes:

“Thank you for seeking my Committee’s advice on objectives for adapting to a world where climate change is increasingly driving extreme weather events. It is clear we are not yet adapted for the changes in weather and climate that we are living with today, let alone those that are expected over coming decades.”

The CCC has been asked for specific advice on a timeframe and minimum climate scenarios for setting adaptation objectives. The CCC is advising is that adaptation objectives should be set to be achieved by 2050 “at the latest.”

“Prudent risk management needs to consider a wider range of possible worse outcomes”

“Unfortunately, we have to advise that the UK should be prepared for climate change beyond the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement. We continue to believe that the long-term temperature goal is achievable, but prudent risk management needs to consider a wider range of possible worse outcomes”, the letter says.

The objectives should “at a minimum”, prepare the country for the weather extremes that will be experienced if global warming levels reach 2°C above preindustrial levels by 2050. The objectives should have “clearly measurable and time-bound targets”, articulate a clear role for Government, and come with explicit delivery accountability for Government departments. Objectives should be set relative to a baseline of today’s level of resilience so that “progress towards them can be clearly tracked.”

The CCC says that faster rates of warming between now and 2050 remain possible, and additional warming beyond 2050 are currently expected.

"Reaching 4°C above preindustrial levels by end-of-century cannot yet be ruled out"

Baroness Black writes:

“At the high end of possibilities, reaching 4°C above preindustrial levels by the end-of-century cannot yet be ruled out and should be considered as part of effective adaptation planning.”

An Annex attached to the letter says higher climate response could see global warming reaching around 2.5°C above preindustrial by the 2050s and reaching around 3.5°C above preindustrial levels by 2100. An approximately 2°C level of global warming could be reached as early as the 2030s.

The CCC is calling on the government to set out a framework of clear long-term objectives in the next National Adaptation Programme (NAP), saying that the adaptation objectives need to be driven through a set of interim milestones, with targets every five years. The objectives should be set out together with the first set of interim milestones for the 2030s, clear accountabilities for departments, and a plan to deliver them.

The CCC’s recent adaptation progress report published in April this year said that governments had “repeatedly failed on their ambitions to make the UK resilient to climate change.”

Welcoming the government’s commitment to an “ambitious and impactful fourth NAP”, this will have to be “materially different to previous NAPs if it is to have value”, the letter concludes.

"Sea levels globally and around the UK are expected to continue to rise for tens to hundreds of years"

The separate Annex says that in terms of time horizon, further climate change is inevitable, warning that even when global temperature is stabilised “the sea levels globally and around the UK are expected to continue to rise for tens to hundreds of years".

In addition, continued warming beyond 2050 will make delivering a well-adapted UK “increasingly challenging on an ongoing basis.”

However, 2050 is sufficiently far in the future (25 years) to support ambitious objectives delivered through action over long timescales - "necessary for some adaptations which require long lead-times, for example, reservoir construction.”

The Annex flags up the possIble impacts for the UK in terms of weather extremes at 2°C global warming above preindustrial levels, including:

• Heatwaves: heatwaves will become more frequent and widespread at 2°C global warming.
• Drought: hot dry summers are expected to become more frequent. Averaged across England, the time spent under drought conditions due to low rainfall is expected to double.
• Flooding: at 2°C global warming, peak rainfall averaged across the UK is expected to increase by up to 10–15% for the wettest days.7 Peak river flows will increase by up to 40% for some UK river catchments. Sea level rise will continue and accelerate with 15–25 cm of additional sea level rise expected by 2050 for UK coastal cities.
• Fire weather: future projections show a doubling of days (compared to the 1981 to 2010 average) with conditions highly favourable for wildfires over at least 5% of England and Wales at 2°C global warming. Wildfire season will become longer, extending into autumn.

The CCC says the level of ambition within adaptation objectives is for Government to decide. The Committee will provide further analysis of the trade-offs involved in its Well-Adapted UK report to be published in May 2026.

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