The Environment Agency has published the first nationwide analysis of the performance of the various flood forecasting models operated in real-time by local centres on the National Flood Forecasting System (NFFS).
The Agency said that understanding the performance of the flood forecasting models by the Environment Agency, Natural Resources Wales and the national Flood Forecasting Centre is crucial to the informed use of model outputs for flood guidance across England and Wales. It is also essential to guide future strategic investment in flood incident management.
The analysis - Understanding the performance of flood forecasting models - is based on Wales and the English geographical regions that align to the old Environment Agency region names.
The project’s overall aim was an integrated analysis of information from past local model assessments, together with performance assessments from the national Grid-to-Grid (G2G) model run on the NFFS for England and Wales. G2G is a distributed grid-based hydrological model with rainfall–run-off and flow routing elements. Its forecasts are compared in the report with those from 4 types of local models.
The project collated data on river flow observations, flow forecasts and historical simulation of flows obtained during previous local model performance studies. Performance statistics were then regenerated using consistent tolerances and methods across all models across England and Wales.
A range of performance statistics, and ways of displaying them, were used to summarise performance at different forecast lead times (the time between when the flood forecast is first made to when it crosses a river flow or level threshold) at a river gauging station. The statistics were complemented by hydrograph displays of forecast, simulated and observed river levels/flows, including an indication of the success in forecasting when a flow/level threshold would be exceeded.
The Flood Forecasting Model Performance Summary developed by the project provides a concise statement of the forecasting performance at each site for a given model in the form of a one-page Performance Summary for each site and model combination.
Almost 1,800 Performance Summary pages have been produced for use by those working in Modelling and Forecasting teams in strategic planning or an operational setting.
According the Environment Agency, the report is essential to guide future strategic investment in flood incident management. The report has already had a significant impact on the Flood Forecasting Service by influencing investment and informing strategic decisions on model types to use.
The Performance Summary framework is designed to be readily refreshed to include new datasets as they become available. The report includes recommendations on how to make the process more efficient and the model assessments more meaningful, and useful.
The project was commissioned by the Environment Agency’s FCRM Directorate, as part of the joint Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management Research and Development Programme.
Click here to read the report Understanding the performance of flood forecasting models in full
Click here to access the mapped performance summary records electronically as PDF files
Username: useffmp
Password: FFM0dels
Sulzer has launched a new global Center of Excellence (CoE) for Water Treatment Solutions - the CoE consolidates Sulzer’s wastewater treatment expertise in a unified and global manner.
“SAS (Surplus Activated Sludge) is a bit weird and 
Owen Mace has taken over as Director of the British Plastics Federation (BPF) Plastic Pipes Group on the retirement of Caroline Ayres. He was previously Standards and Technical Manager for the group.
PureTec Separations, the Ledbury-based water treatment engineering firm, has appointed Dan Norman as its new Sales Manager – Water Process Systems, supporting the company’s continued growth in the UK and international markets.
Hear how Scottish Water has completed its £235 million Ayrshire Glasgow Resilience Project - customers across Greater Glasgow, Ayrshire and East Renfrewshire will now benefit from a more secure and resilient water supply.
Hear how United Utilities is accelerating its investment to reduce spills from storm overflows across the Northwest.
Find out more about the remarkable career opportunities on offer at WSP - scroll down to watch the inspirational video.