The latest Environment Agency water situation report says that last month was the driest February across England since 1993 with monthly rainfall totals below average for all catchments across England.

The February rainfall total for England was 15.3mm which represents 27% of the 1961 to 1990 long term average (LTA) for the time of year (23% of the 1991 to 2020 LTA).

February rainfall totals were classed as notably or exceptionally low at more than four fifths of catchments across England. Many catchments recorded their top ten driest February on record since 1891 and it was the driest February for England since 1993. It was the driest February across 29 catchments since 1959 and driest in east Suffolk since February 1891. At the regional scale rainfall was well below average across England with almost all regions receiving notably or exceptionally low rainfall for the time of year.

The Agency is also reporting that reservoir stocks at the end of February had decreased at more than half of the reservoirs and reservoir groups it reports on. Two reservoirs, Blithfield in central England and Haweswater and Thirlmere in north-west England, saw a stock decrease of 10% compared to the end of January. The largest stock increases, 8% each, were recorded at Lower Lee group in south east England and Hanningfield in eastern England. Nearly two-thirds of the reservoirs or reservoir groups were classed as normal or below normal for the time of year. Nine reservoirs across England are classed as notably low and Colliford in the south west remains at exceptionally low levels for the time of year. Reservoir safety work is ongoing at the Dee reservoirs which supply north-west England meaning storage is lower than would be expected for the time of year.

Soil moisture deficits remain low across England at the end of February but are higher than average for this time of year. River flows decreased at all but two of the indicator sites, and most sites were below normal or lower for the time of year. Groundwater levels increased at almost half of indicator sites, with groundwater levels at the end of February normal in most places. Reservoir stocks in February decreased at more than half of the reservoir and reservoir groups the agency reports on and almost two-thirds remain either normal or below normal for the time of year.

In its forward look, the EA said that March began with ongoing dry conditions in many places. For the 3 month period for the UK from March to May there is an increased chance of warmer than expected conditions, particularly from April onwards. The Agency said there is also a higher than normal chance of a dry spring, but average or wet conditions remain possible.

By the end of March 2023 river flows have a greater likelihood of being below normal across most of England although north east and southern England river flows have a greater chance of being normal. By the end of September 2023 river flows have an increased chance of being below normal in all regions, with sites in the east having the highest chance of lower than normal flows.

For key aquifers, the Agency is projecting that by the end of March 2023 groundwater levels have a greater likelihood of being lower than normal in north west, north east and east England. In south west and central England groundwater levels have a higher likelihood of being above normal. By the end of September 2023 groundwater levels also have a greater likelihood of being lower than normal in the north west, north east and east England.