2022 will be the warmest year on record for the UK, according to provisional figures from the UK Met Office – and the national weather forecaster is warning that 2023 will be one of the Earth’s hottest years on record.

The Met Office says that all four seasons in the UK have ranked in the top ten in a series which began in 1884 and the 10 warmest years have all occurred since 2003.

As well as setting a new 139-year annual mean temperature record, 2022 will also be remembered for several other significant weather events including:

• Exceptionally warm start to New Year
• Storms Dudley, Eunice and Franklin occurring within a week in February
• Dry first half of year
• Record-breaking temperature at Coningsby in July

2022 warmest year on record for UK

2022 will see the highest annual average temperature across the UK, exceeding the previous record set in 2014 when the average was 9.88C. Since 1884, all the ten years recording the highest annual temperature have occurred from 2003. The final provisional figure for 2022 will be available at the conclusion of the year and will then be subject to further quality control and a verification process.

2022 will also be the warmest year on record in the 364-year Central England temperature series from 1659, the world’s longest instrumental record of temperature.

Dr Mark McCarthy head of the Met Office’s National Climate Information Centre said:

“2022 is going to be the warmest year on record for the UK. While many will remember the summer’s extreme heat, what has been noteworthy this year has been the relatively consistent heat through the year, with every month except December being warmer than average.

“The warm year is in line with the genuine impacts we expect as a result of human-induced climate change. Although it doesn’t mean every year will be the warmest on record, climate change continues to increase the chances of increasingly warm years over the coming decades.”

Temperatures remained above average for every month in 2022

Temperatures remained above average for every month of the year in 2022, except December which has been cooler than average so far.

The fourth warmest summer in the series for the UK was underlined with temperatures in excess of 40C recorded in the UK for the first time. Coningsby, Lincolnshire, recorded the highest temperature, with 40.3C exceeding the previous UK record by 1.6C. The hot period in July saw the Met Office issue its first ever red warning for extreme heat with widespread impacts for the UK.

However, last month has just seen an anomalously cold start with the coldest first two weeks of December 2022 since 2010. Temperatures dropped as low as –17.3C at Braemar on 13 December as cool northerly air influenced the UK weather. Up to 27 December, average mean temperature for the UK is just 2.4C, which is 1.8C below the average for the month.

A strong jet stream is pushing a succession of low-pressure systems across the Atlantic bringing wet and windy weather for many over the coming days and several weather warnings have been issued for rain, snow, ice and wind.

Dr McCarthy continued:

“2022 has been dominated by higher than average temperatures. The record-breaking temperatures in July have certainly boosted the overall temperature values for the year, but that isn’t the full story.

“Temperatures have been above the 1991-2020 long term average for a large proportion of the year, and this is something that we can anticipate as we become increasingly affected by climate change. Met Office science has shown that the temperatures witnessed in mid-July would have been extremely unlikely in the pre-industrial period – the era before humanity started emitting lots of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels.

“However, as we have seen in the first two weeks of December, our climate is still subject to notable cold spells during the winter season, but our observational data show these have generally become less frequent and less severe as our climate warms.”

Below average rainfall for UK in 2022 

Aside from the record-breaking temperatures, one of the most notable discussion points for 2022 was the dry conditions. Aside from brief spells at the beginning of January and at the end of February, the UK’s total rainfall accumulation has remained persistently below average for the year.

Summer was the tenth driest on record for the UK, with the south and east of the country especially dry. Some locations in southern and eastern England recorded virtually no rain in July, and by the conclusion of August, the year had been at its driest at that point since 1976.

Dr McCarthy added

“Despite the recent rain, the year has still been dry for much of the country, especially so in the south and east.”

The south of England has so far had only just over three quarters of the rainfall it would normally expect in a year.

At the other end of the scale, western areas of Scotland saw more rain on a more similar scale to long-term averages for the year, but even here many locations are likely to end the year drier than average.

Storms and sunshine

A total of four storms were named in 2022 but three of them came in the space of a week.

Storms Dudley, Eunice and Franklin impacted the UK in February 2022, with Storm Eunice resulting in red warnings for wind and saw a new highest maximum gust speed record for England set of 122mph at the Needles on the Isle of Wight.

Sunshine hours have been in good supply in the UK for 2022 according to the provisional Met Office figures.

The UK has already seen 9% more sunshine hours than average for the whole of the year. This has been spurred on by areas to the south and east. East Anglia has already had 20% more sunshine hours than its average, making it the sunniest year on record for the region, with some time left in the year for that figure to increase further.

“By the start of December the UK had already seen more sunshine hours than average for the whole of the year. The most consistently bright parts of the UK have been in the south and east. We already know that it’ll be a top 10 year for sunshine hours in the UK, with England likely to have sunshine figures in the top three sunniest years on record,” concluded Dr Mark McCarthy.

Figures cited are provisional Met Office figures up to 27 December 2022.

Annual global temperature - 2023 set to be tenth consecutive year at 1°C or above

Looking ahead, the Met Office annual global temperature forecast for 2023 suggests that next year will be one of the Earth’s hottest years on record.

The average global temperature for 2023 is forecast to be between 1.08 °C and 1.32°C (with a central estimate of 1.20 °C) above the average for the pre-industrial period (1850-1900): the tenth year in succession that temperatures have reached at least 1°C above pre-industrial levels.

The Met Office’s Dr Nick Dunstone, who has led the 2023 global temperature forecast, said:

“The global temperature over the last three years has been influenced by the effect of a prolonged La Niña – where cooler than average sea-surface temperatures occur in the tropical Pacific. La Niña has a temporary cooling effect on global average temperature.”

“For next year our climate model is indicating an end to the three consecutive years with La Niña state with a return to relative warmer conditions in parts of the tropical Pacific. This shift is likely to lead to global temperature in 2023 being warmer than 2022.”

Prof. Adam Scaife, Head of Long-range Prediction at the Met Office, added:

“So far 2016 has been the warmest year in the observational record which began in 1850. 2016 was an El Niño year where the global temperature was boosted by warmer waters in parts of the tropical Pacific. Without a preceding El Niño to boost global temperature, 2023 may not be a record-breaking year, but with the background increase in global greenhouse gas emissions continuing apace it is likely that next year will be another notable year in the series.”

The series of warmest years began in 2014; since then global temperatures exceeded 1.0°C above the pre-industrial period (1850-1900). Some locations such as the Arctic have warmed by several degrees since pre-industrial times.

The Met Office is warning that global temperatures are rising and there is a need to act swiftly to keep global mean temperature below 1.5°C to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.