New analysis from the World Resources Institute (WRI) ranking 167 countries for water stress in 2040 shows that 14 of the 33 likely most stressed countries are in the Middle East - and suggests that drought and water shortages were contributory factors in Syria's civil unrest.

Released today at World Water Week, the rankings show which countries could be dependent on limited amounts of water in 2040. High water stress threatens economic growth and national water security because companies, farms, and residents are vulnerable to the slightest change in supply.

14 of the 33 likely most stressed countries in 2040 are in the Middle East, including nine considered extremely highly stressed with a score of 5.0 out of 5.0: Bahrain, Kuwait, Palestine, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Lebanon. WRI says the region, already arguably the least water-secure in the world, faces exceptional water-related challenges for the foreseeable future.

High water stress in China, India, and the United States are projected to remain roughly constant through 2040. However, specific areas in these regions e.g. southwestern U.S. and China’s Ningxia province, could see water stress increase by up to 40 to 70 percent.

According to WRI, while the world’s demand for water is likely to surge in the next few decades, it is not clear where all the water will come from. Climate change is expected to make some areas drier and others wetter. As precipitation extremes increase in some regions, affected communities face greater threats from droughts and floods.

While changing water supply and demand is inevitable, exactly what that change will look like around the world is far from certain. The first-of-its-kind analysis by WRI sheds new light on the issue.

Using a mixture of climate models and socioeconomic scenarios, WRI scored and ranked future water stress – a measure of competition and depletion of surface water – in 167 countries by 2020, 2030, and 2040. WRI found that 33 countries face extremely high water stress in 2040.

Challenging future for a volatile region

Fourteen of the 33 likely most water stressed countries in 2040 are in the Middle East, including nine considered extremely highly stressed with a score of 5.0 out of 5.0: Bahrain, Kuwait, Palestine, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Lebanon. The region, already arguably the least water-secure in the world, draws heavily upon groundwater and desalinated sea water, and faces exceptional water-related challenges for the foreseeable future.

Syria: drought and water shortages contributed to civil unrest

WRI says that with regional violence and political turmoil commanding global attention, water may seem tangential. Interestingly however, WRI suggests that drought and water shortages in Syria are likely to have contributed to the unrest that stoked the country’s 2011 civil war. Dwindling water resources and chronic mismanagement forced 1.5 million people, primarily farmers and herders, to lose their livelihoods and leave their land, move to urban areas, and magnify Syria’s general destabilization.

The report says that the problem also extends to other countries - water is a significant dimension of the decades-old conflict between Palestine and Israel. Saudi Arabia’s government said its people will depend entirely on grain imports by 2016, a change from decades of growing all they need, due to fear of water-resource depletion. The U.S. National Intelligence Council wrote that water problems will put key North African and Middle Eastern countries at greater risk of instability and state failure and distract them from foreign policy engagements with the U.S.

Water stress for the world’s largest economies

While they will probably not face the extreme water stress blanketing the Middle East in 2040, the report says that global superpowers such as the United States, China and India face water risks of their own. High water stress in all three countries are projected to remain roughly constant through 2040. increase by up to 40 to 70 percent.

WRI also draws attention to the limitation of national-level datasets and that averaging future water stress across an entire country into a single score can disguise local-level risks. Uncertainty permeates these forward-looking models because future climate conditions and development patterns are impossible to predict.

What’s driving the change?

WRI says every water-stressed country is affected by a different combination of factors. Chile, for example, projected to move from medium water stress in 2010 to extremely high stress in 2040, is among the countries more likely to face a water supply decrease from the combined effects of rising temperatures in critical regions and shifting precipitation patterns.

Botswana and Namibia sit squarely within a region that is already vulnerable to climate change. Water supplies are limited, and risk from floods and droughts is high. Projected temperature increases in southern Africa are likely to exceed the global average, along with overall drying and increased rainfall variability. On the water demand side, according to Aqueduct projections, a 40 to 70 percent – or greater – increase is expected, further exacerbating the region’s concerns.

National and local governments must support strong international climate agreement in Paris

Whatever the drivers,WRI says that extremely high water stress creates an environment in which companies, farms and residents are highly dependent on limited amounts of water and vulnerable to the slightest change in supply. Such situations severely threaten national water security and economic growth.

The Institute is calling for national and local governments must bring forward strong national climate action plans and support a strong international climate agreement in Paris this November. Governments must also respond with management and conservation practices that will help protect essential sustainable water resources for years to come.

For more information visit www.wri.org