The UK’s most comprehensive picture yet of how the climate could change over the next century - in a worst case scenarion sea level in London could rise by up to 1.1 metres and the chance of summers as hot as 2018 is around 50% by 2050.

 Launched today by Environment Secretary Michael Gove and using the latest science from the Met Office and around the world, the UK Climate Projections 2018 illustrate a range of future climate scenarios until 2100 – showing increasing summer temperatures, more extreme weather and rising sea levels are all on the horizon and urgent international action is needed.

The results set out a range of possible outcomes over the next century based on different rates of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. Under the high emission scenario:

• Summer temperatures could be up to 5.4C hotter by 2070, while winters could be up to 4.2C warmer
• The chance of a summer as hot as 2018 is around 50% by 2050
• Sea levels in London could rise by up to 1.15 metres by 2100

Average summer rainfall could decrease by up to 47 per cent by 2070, while there could be up to 35 per cent more precipitation in winter.

Sea levels are projected to rise over the 21st century and beyond under all emission scenarios – meaning we can expect to see an increase in both the frequency and magnitude of extreme water levels around the UK coastline.

UKCP18 can be used as a tool to guide decision-making and boost resilience – whether through increasing flood defences, designing new infrastructure or adjusting ways of farming for drier summers.

Speaking today from the Science Museum in London, Environment Secretary Michael Gove said:

“This cutting-edge science opens our eyes to the extent of the challenge we face, and shows us a future we want to avoid.

By having this detailed picture of our changing climate, we can ensure we have the right infrastructure to cope with weather extremes, homes and businesses can adapt, and we can make decisions for the future accordingly.”

With climate change a global challenge, for the first time, UKCP presents international projections, allowing other nations to use this data to gauge future risks for food supply chains, or check rainfall projections for the likelihood of localised flooding.

Met Office Chief Scientist Stephen Belcher said:

“The new science in UKCP18 enables us to move from looking at the trends associated with climate change, to describing how seasonal weather patterns will change. For example, heatwaves like the one we experienced in the summer of 2018 could be normal for the UK by mid-century.”

“While the UK continues to play a leading role in limiting the causes of global warming and halting temperature rises, some changes to the climate are inevitable. Building on the UK government’s long-term plan for adapting to a changing climate, these projections will help businesses, investors, local authorities, industry and individuals plan for a wide range of possible future changes – alongside taking action to reduce the likelihood of the worst-case scenario becoming reality.”

Claire Perry, Minister for Energy and Clean Growth added:

“While it is not possible to give a precise prediction of how weather and climate will change years into the future, UKCP18 provides a range of outcomes that capture the spread of possible future climates, so we can develop and test robust plans.”

“The projections will be factored into the UK’s flood adaptation planning and the Environment Agency’s advice to flood and coastal erosion risk management authorities.”

UKCP18 has been developed by the Met Office Hadley Centre, in partnership with Defra, BEIS, the Devolved Administrations and the Environment Agency, and has been extensively peer reviewed by an independent science panel.

People and businesses will be able to use UKCP18 to explore the types and magnitude of climate change projected for the future, while government will use the projections to inform its adaptation and mitigation planning and decision-making.

Click here to access the UK Climate Projections 2018.